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Gaming Guru
Can You Wait for a Winning Run?16 June 1997
It's partly because big scores seem so close yet are so elusive. But that can't be the whole story, since sensible solid citizens are savvy enough not to anticipate major money on every outing. The frustration also results because bounty bestowed comes from cash collected. Games favoring the few with rare rich returns are bankrolled by bet after losing bet taken from the many. Players aspiring to high prizes are therefore destined to encounter briefer bursts of successes than of setbacks. The casinos aren't being sinister or devious setting up certain table games and most machines this way. They're meeting demands for a gambling experience in which the next bet offers a shot at a pot of gold, or, at least, knowledge that one hit can save an otherwise dreary day. Players happy with small profits have ample opportunity to make bets with no pie-in-the-sky multipliers for rare single-play outcomes, and to win correspondingly more often. At blackjack, even with liberal resplitting of pairs and doubling down, players can only win a maximum of eight times the base bet. And they must risk an equal sum to do so. In over 99 percent of all resolved hands - those which don't "push" - the player wins or loses two or fewer betting units. The probability of winning at least one unit on any hand is high - 48 percent of all rounds in which a decision is made. In contrast, Let It Ride offers payoffs up to 1,000 times what's bet. A player starting with three $5 spots, who draws a 10-H J-H Q-H and leaves the first two wagers active, grabs $15,000 if the "community cards" are K-H and A-H. Other payoffs are attractive, too. A straight flush yields 200-to-1 - $3,000 for three $5 bets in action. And four of a kind has a 50-to-1 return - $750 for the same three $5 bets. The downside is that wins of any amount occur on only about 24 percent of all hands. Differing chances of runs of successive losses or wins don't necessarily mean one game is somehow better than another. Players have individual motivations. However, in selecting, it's wise to understand both negative and positive factors. Going for the gold is great, but not if you're easily annoyed by a streak of losing bets. A preference for moderate swings is fine, but not if you'll be impatient when a series of wins doesn't get you a limo ride to Easy Street. The bard of baffled bettors, Sumner A Ingmark, put the predicament poetically:
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