CasinoCityTimes.com

Home
Gaming Strategy
Featured Stories
News
Newsletter
Legal News Financial News Casino Opening and Remodeling News Gaming Industry Executives Author Home Author Archives Search Articles Subscribe
Newsletter Signup
Stay informed with the
NEW Casino City Times newsletter!
Related Links
Recent Articles
Best of Alan Krigman
author's picture
 

Can you make a few bucks always betting on the 12 at craps?

17 June 2013

Question: My grandfather, who's 92 and lives alone, goes to the casinos by bus every weekday. He loves craps and has a "system." He buys $31 in dollar chips and bets them one at a time on the 12. As soon as he wins, he quits. He says it's nearly impossible not to hit the 12 in 31 rolls and that he "almost always" wins a few bucks. Is he onto something, or has he just been lucky?

Answer: The chance of a 12 on any roll is 1 out of 36 or 2.78 percent. This is because the dice can land 36 different ways – only one of which, the 6-6, totals 12.

The chance this bet will lose 31 times in a row is 41.76 percent. Five days a week, 50 weeks a year, means 250 games. Your grandfather can expect to lose $31 in 41.76 percent of those 250. This is 104 games – roughly twice a week overall. The other three times a week, he should break even or win from $1 to $30.

If he hits the mathematical average, his 146 wins won't cover his 104 losses. Bad days cost him $31 but good days earn him less.

Over a year, your grandfather's "system" should work out to set him back around $3 per session. Depending on where he lives, he's spending $15 or $20 for his bus ticket – and the casino refunds from $5 or $10 in coin (and sometimes more) and a coupon for a buffet lunch. So he's enjoying time with his cronies, being treated respectfully by the casino staff, eating like a king, getting in on the action, and feeling good about himself for under $10 or $15 a day. Assuming he can afford it, where else can the guy get a deal like that?
Alan Krigman

Alan Krigman was a weekly syndicated newspaper gaming columnist and Editor & Publisher of Winning Ways, a monthly newsletter for casino aficionados. His columns focused on gambling probability and statistics. He passed away in October, 2013.
Alan Krigman
Alan Krigman was a weekly syndicated newspaper gaming columnist and Editor & Publisher of Winning Ways, a monthly newsletter for casino aficionados. His columns focused on gambling probability and statistics. He passed away in October, 2013.