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PinnacleSports looks at baseball strategy

3 August 2007

WILLESTA, Curacao -- (PRESS RELEASE) -- Leading online sportsbook, PinnacleSports.com is proud to announce the release of the latest edition of the Pinnacle Pulse -- the indispensable betting strategy bulletin -- which focuses on tactical considerations when betting baseball and the potential benefit of Alternate Runlines for baseball betting. Most online sports books treat Alternate Runlines like a proposition bet and charge even more juice (commission) than on a normal line.

However the Alternate Runlines at the Pinnacle Sports book offer far more competitive internet betting lines and typically offer the best odds on both sides. This can make the crucial difference between profit and loss, but bettors still need to find the right side of the Alternate Runline when betting baseball.

Best Odds on Alternate Runlines at online sports book Pinnacle Sports The Pinnacle Sportsbook's Alternate Runlines will frequently offer more value than either the moneyline or the normal runline price with odds worth up to 60% better value than other Internet betting companies. In addition, one can often get a strong number on Alternate Runlines at most online sportsbooks as they are based on an earlier price for the moneyline and total.

Choosing between Moneylines, Runlines, and Alternate Runlines It is vital to get a sense of what the relative prices should be by building up a chart of prices considered fair. Teams can be compared against the chart to see if either line is cheaper than expected. When this happens there is the possibility to get a better number than the moneyline. It is scary how powerful this can be when combined with line shopping.

Steam Chasing

Sportsbooks that are slow adjusting moneylines when there are significant line moves, can be even slower adjusting runlines. Bettors can catch these books 'leaning.' They are dealing a number designed to get the action they want from their own players, so when they offer a number inside the "Pinnacle range" a power move on the game can lead to good value or even a scalp before they realize what happened

Sometimes a syndicate will bet the runline or moneyline but not both. This will lead to numbers between the moneyline and the run line that no longer agree with one another. Close to game time, square books will often be forced to overcharge so much for the public side to balance their books, that they unwittingly create opportunities for astute players at Pinnacle Sports betting. These unique numbers will pop up surprisingly often.

The 'Forced Bet' Scenario

These fluctuations in odds can even lead to what some sharps consider a 'forced bet' situation. For example, if a road team is available at +121 and the home team -119, a professional would be happy to bet either, if not both, the only question is how much to risk?

When a runline creates the equivalent situation, the player has the advantage and not the book. Players can bet both sides, play for the middle or bet against it by choosing the side they like more.

When the lines are roughly equal, players should use their own game model to choose the right side to play. Strong pitching and defense or a poor offense, point towards a low total, so look to take the +1.5. Conversely a strong offense or weak pitching and defense, points to a higher total, so it's better to lay -1.5 with favorable odds.

Pay Attention to Variance

Variance is also an important factor as most blowouts result from the breakdown of a pitcher or from one that pitches a gem. Unpredictable quantities like Carlos Zambrano or call-ups from the minors are strong candidates for laying -1.5 on either team, but don't get excited by a team's record in one run games. This is not a predictive statistic.

Bet Size & Record Keeping

Playing at different odds also makes bet sizing and performance tracking more difficult, so make sure to compare to a break-even point rather than to a win percentage of 50%, 51.1% or 52.2%. Many sharps betting baseball lose far more bets than they win and come out ahead. The mathematically correct strategy for determining bet size is to focus on the amount you're trying to win, rather than the amount risked or the base amount of the wager. However, it is worth remembering that the mathematical answer might not always be right for everyone.

If after reading this, a player is still uncomfortable betting runlines, there is no shame in sticking with the moneyline by playing at a low juice sportsbook like PinnacleSports.com and enjoying the simple pleasure of rooting for a team to win.

Soccer Futures Markets - Interesting Animals

From PinnacleSports.com's perspective, we know that there are individuals who are extremely sharp at betting futures, but discovering who the sharp bettors may be and how sharp they actually are can often take most of a year. To find where the early action has been on the Premier League, Bundesliga and Serie A, read the Inside Line from PinnacleSports.com.

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PinnacleSports looks at baseball strategy is republished from Online.CasinoCity.com.