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Columnist: Kentucky Derby Offers No Clear Favorite

LAS VEGAS --Interest in the Kentucky Derby shifted into a higher gear over the weekend, and while there are still 11 weeks to go, this year's "Run for the Roses" is as wide open a contest as there has been in many a year.

Usually, by this juncture there is a clear favorite in the sophomore division, but not this season.

Ever since the inaugural Breeders' Cup in 1984, the Juvenile winner automatically was installed as the favorite for the next Kentucky Derby. In the 17 years since, no horse has won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and returned to capture the Kentucky Derby. Many didn't even make the dance in Louisville.

This year that honor falls to Johannesburg. The European wonder horse took the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Belmont Park last fall and hasn't been seen since. His connections quickly whisked the juvenile champion back over the pond and plans for his 3-year-old debut -- let alone any Kentucky Derby possibilities -- are still under wraps.

The first pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby future book pool for this year's race was conducted over the weekend. The pool is offered at various tracks and betting establishments around the nation.

As usual, several Las Vegas race books offered the pool in addition to their own fixed-odds version of the future book. The fixed odds are locked in at the time of purchase, while the pari-mutuel pool numbers are locked in at the end of the betting period. For the first pool, that meant 2:30 p.m. Sunday.

The "field," or all other horses, came out a 5-2 favorite in the pari-mutuel pool.

Others drawing interest were Siphonic (8-1 in the pool, 7-1 at Bally's, 8-1 at Coast Resort properties); Repent (8-1 pool, 7-1 Bally's, 5-1 Coasts); Saarland (11-1 pool, 10-1 Bally's, 8-1 Coasts); and Johannesburg (7-1 pool, 8-1 Bally's, 6-1 Coasts).

Although the pari-mutuel future book pool, which is based at Churchill Downs, offers the field proposition and Las Vegas bookmakers do not, most horses (Repent and Saarland being two exceptions) had more attractive future book odds at one or both of the two Las Vegas outlets we surveyed.

This weekend's pair of sophomore stakes races -- the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park and the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds -- did little or nothing to clear up the field of contenders for the Kentucky Derby. In fact, the odds on Fountain of Youth winner Booklet and Risen Star winner Repent stayed about the same even after their victories.

The next of the three pari-mutuel future book pools will start its four-day run on Thursday, March 14.

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