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Columnist Jeff Haney: Sports Bettor Fezzik: Teaching, Not 'Touting'

In the summers of 1999 and 2000, for instance, Fezzik's detailed analysis of his best bet in NFL total wins wagering appeared in "Blackjack Forum," a quarterly publication aimed at that small set of serious gamblers known as "advantage players."

Both times, the bet cashed.

And in the magazine's current issue, Fezzik again has one of the cover stories on NFL futures.

Fezzik is not a writer by trade, though. He's a sports bettor, a sharp -- and definitely an advantage player (basically, someone who maintains an edge over the house in gambling).

In fact, Fezzik (just Fezzik -- a one-word name, like Cher, or Christo) is usually content to avoid the media altogether.

And so it was that his appearance in Las Vegas last weekend was shrouded in some degree of secrecy.

It came at a small gathering of blackjack card counters, a subculture so clandestine it makes J.D. Salinger look like a media whore.

As per the counters' cynical approach to life, the meeting took place in a private room at an off-Strip non-casino restaurant, and was, of course, by invitation only.

Otherwise, who knows? Maybe an evil pit boss would slip some mercuric chloride into the mahi mahi special. Even worse, maybe someone would show up with a camera.

Fezzik held court as the sports betting expert in the group, mixing in some blackjack analogies while talking about his role in the stable of high-caliber analysts on the newly launched Sharp Sports Betting website (sharpsportsbetting.com)

"Most touts have a deservedly bad reputation, since they do things like sell key phone picks for $30 per call, giving out three picks on the call," the California-based Fezzik said. "What does this do to a $100 per game bettor? Well, assuming the tout hits around 50 percent, this works out to paying an extra $20 in vig on each game. So the bettor is not laying 110, but 130.

"Ugh! He now needs to hit well over 55 percent just to break even. Talk about your high fund expense ratios."

Fezzik said he emphasizes an exchange of ideas rather than "paying for picks."

"The best role for a sports service is to provide not only suggested plays, but massive education on the strategy to follow when betting," he said.

Fezzik draws a comparison between basic strategy in blackjack and a corresponding set of guidelines in betting sports.

"In 21, basic strategy lowers the house edge to around .5 percent," he said. "It is not in itself profitable, but it gets you almost even -- and from there you can incorporate other methods to get into the black, whether it's card counting, comp hustling, or other methods.

"The same is true in sports."

As an example, Fezzik brought up the Buccaneers-Cowboys game in Week 1 of the upcoming NFL season.

"What's the 'basic strategy' for playing a game like Tampa Bay at Dallas?" he said. "Well, historically, NFL home dogs have covered well over 52 percent. Does that mean they will continue to do so? Perhaps. But certainly, basic strategy calls for you to look to either play the dog -- Dallas -- or pass the game. Who would want to play a subset -- NFL road favorites -- that has covered less than 50 percent historically and lay minus 110?

"I'm not saying a very skilled player won't find a few advantage spots doing this, but the average player should avoid these plays altogether. In general, the average player should typically avoid any big favorite in all sports, since historically all the 'square' betting drives the number up slightly too high, where the only possible edge is on the dog."

In his print articles and Internet posts, Fezzik advises fellow gamblers to "back up the truck," meaning bet heavy, on plays he considers especially strong.

Suffice to say, Fezzik is not an advocate of flat-betting (wagering the same amount on each play).

In his top college football play so far, now posted with an in-depth analysis on the Sharp Sports Betting site, Fezzik says bet Northwestern "under" 8 1/2 wins for the season. (Alas, in Las Vegas the number on Northwestern is 7 1/2; he is referring to an offshore line.)

But in the current "Blackjack Forum," Fezzik says forget about the truck when it comes to this year's NFL total wins pick (which he reveals in the article). This time get a whole train, and back that sucker up.

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