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Columnist Jeff Haney: Pros, Public May Agree on Sugar Bowl

by Jeff Haney

It's not often that professional bettors and the general public find themselves hammering away at the same side of a betting proposition.

But that could turn out to be the case Tuesday in the hours leading up to the Sugar Bowl, in which Florida State and Virginia Tech square off for college football's national championship.

The public's money figures to land on Florida State simply because it's favored, and the public historically bets the favorite -- especially on the day of a big game.

The pro bettors are also likely to back Florida State, but they'll have an ulterior motive: completing their shot at a "middle."

Florida State opened a 7 1/2-point favorite in the books and has been bet down to 5 1/2 or 6, depending on the property.

Las Vegas author and handicapper Andy Iskoe figures the same "smart" Virginia Tech money that helped drive the number down will turn around and grab Florida State once the line bottoms out, in an attempt to cash tickets both ways.

"I cannot identify for sure whether it was wiseguy money or public money, but I believe the wise guys have (Tech at plus) 7 1/2," Iskoe said. "If you look at how the teams performed against their three common opponents, Florida State should actually be the underdog in the game -- and the wise guys know that bettors will be looking at that angle and backing Virginia Tech."

The Hokies have been getting the support so far. The question is, how low will the number go?

"Maybe it will go to four, or maybe it won't go any lower than 5 1/2," Iskoe said. "Wherever it lands, they'll be keeping a close eye on it."

The line-watching will become more intense starting Friday, when the holiday weekend crowds begin pouring into the city's sports books.

"If I'm correct, the wise guys helped bet the number down, and they'll be the ones who push it back up," Iskoe said. "They're trying to create a middle of as many as three to four points."

There's also a chance the number will hover around 6, causing the "middle" plan will backfire.

The Resort at Summerlin sports book, for example, has been seeing two-way betting at 6 points.

"We're still at 6," said the Resort's Jeff Sherman. "We did open the game at 7, but since we moved it to 6 we've had balanced action."

Iskoe calls this season's Sugar Bowl a tough game to handicap, due mainly to the experience factor. Florida State comes in as a veteran of national title games, Virginia Tech as a rookie.

"That's something you just never know about," Iskoe said. "Florida State has won national championships, they've lost national championship (games), they have the more experienced quarterback ... Experience may or may not be a plus for Florida State, but it can't possibly be a plus for Virginia Tech."

* DECEMBER DOGS: The recipe for successfully betting bowl games in the '90s has shaped up like this: Take underdogs early in the bowl season, and take favorites late.

More specifically, ease into action with the 'dogs in December, then jump all over the favorites from New Year's Day on.

"Since 1991, underdogs in pre-January bowl games have shown a small profit, and January favorites have done absolutely awesome," said Iskoe, who posts betting information and articles on his website, www.thelogicalapproach.com.

Underdogs in December bowl games have covered at a 54 percent rate in that span, Iskoe noted, while favorites are 41-22-1 (65 percent) against the spread in January bowls.

And that's not just a statistical quirk.

"It makes sense, because there are more bowl games than ever before," Iskoe said. "Ten years ago, there were some very good teams in minor bowls because instead of 46 teams on the bowl schedule, there were maybe 32 teams.

"Now, you're down to some 6-5 teams filling out a field of 46. So you get teams that are sometimes good, sometimes bad, and always inconsistent. It becomes little more than a toss-up, making it worthwhile to take the points."

That leaves the January bowls to the real powerhouses, who tend to play true to form.

"On New Year's Day and beyond you're usually looking at teams with 9-2 records or better," Iskoe said. "The linesmakers, the public and the serious bettors all have a pretty good handle on who the better team is. And in these situations the better team usually wins and covers."

To illustrate this fact, Iskoe points out that since 1991 the team that won the game straight up also covered the spread 73.5 percent of the time in the regular season.

But in the bowl season, the straight-up winner also covered the spread a whopping 88.7 percent of the time. (That is, either the favorite won and covered or the underdog won outright.)

"In other words, when it comes to betting bowl games, just pick the straight-up winner," Iskoe said.

Counting the Las Vegas Bowl, which is off the board in Nevada, bowl underdogs are 4-2 against the spread this December.

* LONGER ODDS: The push to bring a major league sports team to Las Vegas suffered a setback, and this time it had nothing to do with the question of how local sports books would deal with the possibility.

Mayor Oscar Goodman spent the holiday weekend at his San Diego retreat, but got little rest. During meetings with Padres owner John Moores, Goodman learned the multimillionaire must now focus his efforts on his hometown, as a move is afoot to revisit the referendum that granted the Padres a new stadium.

Moores now must concentrate on fighting the referendum, at the immediate of expense of exploring the possibility of bringing a major league team here. Moores is considered a player in the movement to attract an NHL or NBA franchise to Las Vegas.

Copyright © Las Vegas Sun. Inc. Republished with permission.

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