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Columnist Jeff Haney: Kickoff Bettors May Outsmart Themselves

by Jeff Haney

There's a good reason Las Vegas oddsmakers put all those wacky cross-sport Super Bowl propositions on the betting board.

People love to wager on 'em.

The most popular prop at the Imperial Palace sports book over the past week has been this gem: the number of Trent Dilfer completions (minus 2) vs. the number of Shaquille O'Neal missed free throws (plus 2) Sunday.

At the Regent, this prop has drawn enough action to warrant a line change: The number of Raven touchdowns (plus 1/2) vs. the number of Manchester United goals (minus 1/2) Sunday. By the way, they're betting Man U.

Bettors at the Castaways are putting their money on total number of completions in the Super Bowl vs. Allen Iverson's points Sunday against the Pacers.

"We've had some play on the completions side," said D. Wayne Mauldin, sports book director at the Castaways (formerly the Showboat). "We have the completions at plus 120, and you have to lay 150 with Iverson, so I think people are looking for some value there."

And it's still only Wednesday. It's early. The heavy duty Super Bowl betting action doesn't crank up until later in the week.

"A lot of the players, especially the wise guys, are going around to the different books and shopping numbers on the props," Mauldin said, referring to professional bettors. "If they see value, they're going to snap it up; otherwise they're just going shopping."

Another prop generating a great deal of action -- mostly one-sided -- at the Imperial Palace is which team will receive the opening kickoff.

Bettors are backing the Giants, apparently speculating that Baltimore, with its superb defense, will elect to kick off if it wins the coin toss.

But those Giants bettors may be outsmarting themselves.

Per NFL rules, should the Ravens win the toss and decide to kick, the Giants, as losers of the coin toss, would still get first choice at the beginning of the second half. They would undoubtedly elect to receive again. (Under old NFL rules, the team that kicked off to start the game would receive to start the second half.)

It's not likely Baltimore would want to kick off to start both halves.

Imperial Palace sports book director Jay Kornegay thinks some of those Giants bettors might be unaware of the current rules.

"Unless there are some kind of extreme weather conditions, I don't think any team will defer if it wins the coin toss," Kornegay said.

Yet they continue to bet the Giants to receive the opening kickoff.

The IP opened the prop even money each way -- a rare no-vig bet that served as a sort of loss leader. Kornegay said he moved the line only after other books, responding to that same crush of Giants money, posted Giants minus 140/Ravens plus 120.

That situation would have given bettors a juicy freeroll and left the IP highly exposed on what amounts to -- literally -- a coin flip.

"I wanted to keep it even/even, but I had to make the Giants minus 130 after some other (books) out there made it 140/120," Kornegay said.

One local handicapper, who prefers to remain behind the scenes, says forget the opening kickoff. His best bet among Super Bowl props is on the player to score the game's first touchdown. The handicapper, who did well betting this prop during the regular season, says take "the field" at 8-1.

Essentially, the field gives the bettor all defensive and special teams players as well as the more obscure offensive players -- everyone but the top 16 or so offensive threats.

"Look at both teams' (excellent) defenses, and imagine how tough it's going to be in the red zone with two average quarterbacks," the handicapper said. "I anticipate a conservatively played, low-scoring game, and I think these defenses and special teams have a good chance of scoring for (field bettors)."

In the game itself, Kornegay said Ravens minus 3 looks like a fairly solid number.

"Obviously most books would like to be able to stay on the 3," Kornegay said. "If it's going to go anywhere, it will go back down to 2 1/2, but it will (make that move) very late if at all."

Mauldin said most early wagering at the Castaways has been on the over/under.

"We're getting a lot of play on the total rather than either side," he said. "We're at 33 now, but we've been as high as 34 1/2 and as low as 32 1/2. The 32 1/2 didn't last that long; I think some people who bet the opening number under saw a chance at a little bit of a middle and bought it right up."

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