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Columnist Jeff Haney: Great Backcourts Often Lead to Good Bets

Sharp college basketball bettors always like to get behind teams with talented backcourts, but especially early in the season before the grind of conference play sets in.

Throw in some line value -- namely, either getting points or laying 9 or fewer with a team that has top-rated guards -- and you have a formula even the shrewdest gamblers can embrace.

This time of year, perhaps the best way to gauge a team's guard strength is to pick up your trusty copy of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook and take a look at any team whose backcourt has received an A or A+ rating.

Then, look to bet on those teams as underdogs or small favorites (minus 9 or less) in November and December. (Once conference play begins, it's a whole new ball game.)

A year ago, following this strategy yielded a record of anywhere from 15-11-2 (58 percent) to 17-11 (61 percent), as a couple of games fell right around the number.

Note that any successful professional gambler would be quite pleased to hit 58-61 percent over the course of a year. But also keep in mind we're not grasping for some "sure-fire" system; we're just exploring a thoughtful approach to college baskets.

And if it doesn't work out as well this year, remember what the system cost -- and for that same 50 cents, you also got to read the latest installment of "Get Fuzzy" on the comics page.

Here's a preview of what to expect this season:

Duke (backcourt grade -- A): The Blue Devils should be small underdogs at Temple Dec. 2.

Maryland (A): The Terps should be heavy favorites until January.

Oklahoma (A): The Sooners should be small favorites at Mississippi Dec. 2. The Dec. 23 game against Arkansas could qualify as well.

Iowa (A): The Hawkeyes should be small favorites against Georgia Tech Nov. 28 and against Missouri Dec. 16. The Dec. 9 game against Iowa State figures to be around pick 'em. Borderline calls come Nov. 21 against Drake and Dec. 23 at Kansas State.

Note that Missouri also has an A-rated backcourt, which points to either laying off the game or playing the underdog.

Missouri (A): In addition to the Iowa game, Missouri will be an underdog at Indiana Dec. 18. It should be a small favorite against DePaul Dec. 6.

San Francisco (A): Bettors had a love/Haight relationship with this team last year, as the Dons went 5-2 against the spread in November and December, but 5-12 thereafter.

This season, fans of good backcourts will have plenty of opportunities to test their theory with San Francisco. The Dons should be underdogs against BYU Nov. 30, at Xavier Dec. 5 and at St. John's Dec. 30. They figure to be small favorites against Fresno State Dec. 2, and about a pick 'em at Boise State Dec. 19 and at Pacific Dec. 23. San Francisco will likely be favored by double digits, though, Dec. 9 against Cal Poly.

Pepperdine (A): The Waves should be small favorites against Georgia Dec. 3, at Long Beach State Dec. 6 and -- for offshore bettors only -- at UNLV Dec. 22. They figure to be an underdog at USC Dec. 14.

Buffalo (A): The Bulls figure to be underdogs against Duquesne Dec. 5 and North Carolina Dec. 17.

Kent (A): The Golden Flashes, 23-8 straight up last season with four starters back, could be surprisingly small underdogs at Arizona State Nov. 25.

Marshall (A): The Thundering Herd will come into Cincinnati as an underdog Nov. 21. They'll likely be favored against Detroit, another A team, Nov. 27.

Butler (A): The Bulldogs, also coming off an impressive 23-8 straight up season, should be small favorites against Ball State Nov. 27, Evansville Dec. 2, Santa Clara Dec. 20 and TCU Dec. 23.

Detroit (A): The Titans should be underdogs at Toledo Nov. 29, and give up a few points against Central Michigan Dec. 18 and Western Michigan Dec. 21. They'll probably get a few in the Nov. 27 A-vs.-A matchup with Marshall.

The following teams' backcourts also earned an A or A+, but in past years most or all of their games have been off the betting board: Cal State Northridge, Northern Arizona (which plays UNLV Friday), Radford, UNC Asheville, Iona, Niagara, Davidson, UNC Greensboro, Wofford and McNeese State.

FOOTBALL PICKS: Pro football handicapper Tobin Hensgen went 2-3 this past week in the Las Vegas Hilton "SuperContest" and is 32-22-1 (59 percent) on the season.

"With only six weeks until Christmas -- and the end of the NFL regular season -- the finish to this year's Hilton contest has the potential of being as close as the current Presidential race," said Hensgen (www.nfl-thegame.com). "From here on out, every vote counts."

This week, Hensgen says he will lay up to 2 1/2 points with Kansas City against Buffalo and up to 7 with Philadelphia against Arizona.

CONTEST UPDATES: Two entrants went 16-1 to split the $15,000 weekly prize in the Stardust's free All-American football contest. ...

In the Stardust invitational, defending champ Papa Joe Chevalier went 3-4 to oust local handicapper Cathy Creevy (2-5) and advance to the semifinals of the $10,000 event. At 9 p.m. Friday, Robert Walker, sports book director at MGM-Mirage, meets blackjack expert Stanford Wong in another second-round pairing. ...

In the Don Best invitational, local handicapper Ken White defeated Rob Veno, and New York-based Richard Witt came out of the consolation bracket to defeat Steve Turner of Texas in the $15,000 tournament. This week, Atlanta's Greg Roberts faces local veteran Larry Ness. The Las Vegas-based contest airs on radio stations nationwide and can be heard locally at 4 p.m. Thursday on KRLV 1340-AM.

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