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Columnist Jeff Haney: Football Contestant Makes Run for the Money

With any luck, when the final bell sounds, Hensgen will not be among those bruised and battered contest entrants muttering, "I coulda been a contenda."

After 11 weeks, Hensgen is hitting 61 percent winners in the Hilton contest, which drew 226 players this year and pays the top 20 places. First prize figures to be around $130,000.

Before going 4-1 this past weekend, Hensgen was tied for 29th place. He will likely move up a few spots when the standings are updated this week.

Historically, a winning percentage of 60 percent has been good enough to finish in the money in the Hilton contest, which requires entrants to pick five NFL games against the spread each week.

"The next few weeks are as crucial as they are tough," Hensgen said. "There are indications that some teams may have been 'broken' and just want the season to finish. Other teams, in must-win situations, have blown realisic chances at the playoffs and you can't really tell how they will play from here on out."

In the closing rounds of big contests like the Hilton's, leaders take one of two legitimate approaches: 1) try to outmaneuver fellow contenders by guessing their plays and then going in a different, or opposite, direction in an effort to gain ground; or 2) do your own thing and let the chips fall where they may.

Include Hensgen in the second camp.

To paraphrase Peter Fonda in "Easy Rider," he's just concerned about getting his own thing together. Man.

"Any attempt to outwit the current leaders by anticipating which games they might choose would drive to defeat any rational approach to handicapping," Hensgen said. "Consider a bucket containing 14 tennis balls, seven yellow and seven white. The yellow represent point spread winners, the white losers. You are asked to select five yellow from the 14.

"If you voluntarily eliminate some of the yellow because you're anticipating how your competition will draw, you've increased the odds that your subsequent selections will be white."

Hensgen, who posts picks and other info online at thegame-nfl.com, cited an adage from the business world: It's not enough that you succeed, but someone else must fail.

"That obviously applies to this contest," he said. "If everyone finishes out at 3-2 (each week) the standings stay where they are, (so) 4s and 5s become extremely important here. ... In the meantime, 'theGAME' handicaps for the best values of the week but (also) pays attention to the contestants just behind and the contestants just in front once the plays are posted."

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