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Columnist Jeff Haney: Analyst Predicts Each NFL Game

In the "Las Vegas Pro Football Bettor's Guide 2001," Patrick Forsythe goes where few, if any, sports analysts have gone before: He predicts the final score of every NFL game in the upcoming season, from Week 1 through the Super Bowl.

To illustrate how strongly Forsythe believes in his prognosis, the book includes a picture of a Super Bowl future book ticket he bought on the team he says will win it all.

Forsythe's handicapping methods are straightforward. Practically from the moment the Super Bowl ends, he puts his "talking" computer through two-a-days, displaying a work ethic that makes Dick Vermeil look like Troy from "Reality Bites."

"I have machines that help me 'read' stats and help me with my research," Forsythe said. "But still, with my eye problem, I'd say it's equivalent to doing quadruple the work anyone else would put in."

Forsythe's motivation for publishing the "Pro Football Bettor's Guide," though, is as deep and richly textured as his gambling background. In fact, Forsythe's intense, lifelong interest in betting on football probably has as much to do with Carl Jung as it does with Steve Young.

A Cleveland native, Forsythe grew up in an old Polish and Irish Catholic neighborhood, where gambling was as ingrained as the Baltimore Catechism in young people.

"I remember winning my first parlay card at the age of 9," Forsythe said. "I won $5 on a $1 bet."

(Of organized crime's litany of offenses against society, perhaps none is so egregious as those parlay cards that pay an oh-so-generous "five for one" on a three-teamer.)

Forsythe recalls using his football handicapping ability to impress his father, an avid gambler who thought "quality time" with the kids was an afternoon at the track. (Aside: Who's to say it isn't?)

"I was definitely trying to gain his approval," Forsythe said. "Sometimes it seemed like football was the only thing we had in common."

But Forsythe also saw gambling's dark side. A lot of people from the neighborhood became "problem gamblers," in the politically correct terminology.

Forsythe's term is certainly more direct, and probably more accurate. He calls them "losers."

He figured that as long as he had gambling in his blood, he'd put his heart, soul and brains into it.

"You have to put in the work, develop the ability to make lines and come up with opinions with precision," Forsythe said. "That comes with experience.

"And I can't stress money management enough. Just because there's a big, hyped-up game on TV is no reason to go all out (betting) on it. You have to choose your spots."

An early experience in Las Vegas further sharpened Forsythe's desire to establish himself as one of the "good guys" on the local handicapping scene.

For a short while, he unwittingly became involved with a crooked tout service.

"When I came out (to Las Vegas), I knew I wanted to do something with sports," he said. "Not being able to see, I couldn't work in a sports book. ... I got hooked up with a tout.

"I thought they would have me working statistics, things like that. Instead they're doing things like giving out both sides of a game to 1,000 people, then calling 500 of them back and giving out both sides of another game the next week (and so on). ... I could probably write a book about all the (underhanded) tactics they used."

Meanwhile, Forsythe was predicting every NFL game before each season, using the data for his own handicapping. This year, he's made it available to the public in the "Bettor's Guide."

Howard Schwartz, marketing director at the Gambler's Book Shop (630 S. 11th Street), says the $19.95 spiralbound volume is selling extremely well.

"Many people are incredulous when they see what it is," Schwartz said. "They all ask me what I think of it. All I can say is, let's see what happens the first few weeks. If he goes 10-4 the first week, maybe the book pays for itself, maybe it makes a few units for a $20 player. And if he really gets hot, maybe he starts making a lot of people some money.

"Or, if he goes 4-10 the first three weeks ... well, maybe people will start playing against him."

Many of Forsythe's predictions mirror the "early bird" betting lines available at the Imperial Palace on the Strip and at some offshore books. On those that differ significantly, Forsythe thinks he's right and the lines are off.

Doubt him at your peril. Forsythe assigns a power rating to each of the 22 starters on all 31 NFL teams. He simulates every game at least 1,000 times on a proprietary computer program. He takes into account the expected durability of starters and their backups, matchup history over the past five years, and likely weather conditions. And even then, he has barely scratched the surface.

"I'm really proud of the book, and my family is really proud of it," said Forsythe, who plans to follow his usual strategy with this season's winnings -- investing in certificates of deposit.

With the stock market performing about as well as his hometown Browns lately, that's a sound tactic indeed.

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