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Columnist Buzz Daly: Sports Book Scene17 June 2000Reprinted by permission from Buzz Daly's column, "Sports Book Scene," which appears three times weekly on the Web site www.buzzdaly.com. Sometimes in our zeal to cover bigger stories, we overlook strong material from smaller entities. So, with this column, we belatedly acknowledge that some of Las Vegas' best sports books are not on the Strip. A few locals-oriented shops - where innovation rather than big bucks carries the day - are worth a visit. One of our favorites, Fiesta, operates in the shadow of Lone Mountain in the northwest part of town. Under hard-working race and sports director Marc Nelson, this classy, compact sports book competes with the big boys on even terms. As it gears up for football, Fiesta will once again offer seven different football cards. This diversity is complemented by generosity, as its payouts compare most favorably with Strip sports books as well as with other locals. Only the Stardust offers a greater array of parlay cards. The lure of parlay and teaser cards, of course, is the chance to bet a little and win a lot. No, you don't get true odds, but you're betting into a static line locked into Wednesday night numbers. For sharp handicappers, that is a nice little edge. A few baseball seasons ago, Nelson introduced a fantasy card for baseball bettors. It rewarded them for picking the most productive ball players during a weekend. It was a terrific card with competitive payouts. But there wasn't enough business to justify keeping it, as grading the cards was labor intensive. However, it was a good effort, and Nelson deserves kudos for giving it a shot. For now, he has instituted a free weekly horse racing handicapping contest every Wednesday based on results at a southern California track. A total of $500 in prizes will be awarded to the winners, with first prize nailing $200. Entries are limited to one per person. Under the rules, contestants select one main horse and one alternate horse in each of nine races on the card. Points are awarded for the highest position of each horse. However, in order to keep it to a contest based on some skill rather than luck, there are limitations on the winning horse's price. The win price is limited to 15-1, place to 6-1, and show to 3-1. Racing buffs might want to check out this bet shop a few miles northwest of downtown Vegas. The book is precluded from taking NBA action, due to Fiesta's owners also having a majority interest in the Sacramento Kings. But that doesn't stop Nelson from being aggressive and creative. He reports that this baseball season is the best one in several years. There's lots of action, and form hasn't set in, so bettors are still off balance. And if you get an attack of the munchies while in the book, Fiesta's eateries are well above average. We especially like the buffet, Gardunos Mexican restaurant, and the oyster bar. Baseball Strategy. Regular readers know we are advocates of baseball as a betting sport, far and above anything else. We say that, despite having just watched a sizeable wager on under 10½ runs in the Texas-Baltimore game Thursday night - which was looking like a solid winner all the way to the eighth inning - unravel like a cheap suit. There is nothing more frustrating and disheartening than watching an under bet that is 4-1 in the bottom of the eighth, with the home team winning, degenerate into a parade of incompetent relief pitchers who blow the contest. With the score 6-1, the bases loaded and Albert Belle up with a 3-2 count, we had an eerie premonition of the disaster that was about to happen. Yeah, he hit a grand salami, and we refrained from kicking the computer monitor. We'll be back for more tomorrow. But we will be fortified with solid insight into one of the bets we like to make, a reverse, which for the uninitiated is simply a double if bet. We went to one of the leading off shore bookmakers, Tim, the head man at Betmaker (www.betmaker.net), for advice about how to determine value in a reverse. As we expected, Tim gave us the long and short of it, in an exhaustive email dissertation on reverse bets. He's not shouting below, he just has an affinity for all caps. HERE IS MY OPINION ON REVERSES IN POINT SPREAD SPORTS WHERE YOU ARE LAYING 11/10. IN A $1OO REVERSE YOU HAVE TO WIN BOTH TO SEE THE CASH. YOU RISK $220 TO WIN $400. YOU SPLIT YOU LOSE $120. YOU LOSE BOTH YOU LOSE $220. I BELIEVE THERE IS MORE VALUE IN A $150 PARLAY. YOU RISK $150 TO WIN $390. YOU SPLIT YOU LOSE $150. YOU LOSE BOTH YOU STILL ONLY LOSE $150. THE WAY I LOOK AT IT YOU HAVE TO WIN BOTH IN EACH BET TO SEE THE CASH. WHY RISK AN EXTRA $70 TO WIN AN EXTRA $10? IN A SPLIT SITUATION YOU LOSE $30 MORE IN THE PARLAY BUT IF YOU LOSE BOTH YOU SAVE $70 IN THE PARLAY. ASSUMING THIS WILL HAPPEN ON A 50/50 BASIS THE NUMBERS SAY YOU HAVE GREATER OVERALL VALUE IN THE PARLAY PROPOSITION WHEN YOU WEIGH THE MAXIMUM RISK VERSUS THE MAXIMUM RETURN IN EACH SCENARIO. IN BASEBALL HOWEVER WHERE YOU ARE PLAYING 2 TEAM REVERSES OR 3 TEAM REVERSE BOXES WITH SMALL DOGS ON ALL SIDES OR ONE BIG DOG, THERE IS AN ARGUMENT THAT THERE IS VALUE HERE BECAUSE YOU ARE TAKING THE PRICE, THUS LOWERING YOUR EXPOSURE IN SPLIT SITUATIONS. THE PROBLEM HERE BEING SOME BOOKS WON'T ALLOW YOU TO USE ALL DOGS. BETMAKER.NET WILL LET YOU USE 10 DOGS IN A 10 TEAM PARLAY BUT THEY CAP THE PAYOFF AT 2,000/1. YOU CAN WAGER AS LITTLE AS $6 ON THE NET. WHENEVER YOU WANT TO SEE WHERE THE GREATER VALUE IS IN THE TYPE OF WAGER YOU ARE COMPARING, I LIKE TO WRITE THEM OUT LONG HAND IN THE VARIOUS OUTCOME SCENARIOS SIDE BY SIDE. THEN YOU JUST LOOK AT THE MAXIMUM RISK VERSUS THE MAXIMUM RETURN AND THEN MAKE YOUR DECISION WHERE THE GREATEST VALUE LIES. |