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Best of Dan Ippolito

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Top 10 NFL Draft prop bets

30 March 2020

Things are going to look a lot different for this year’s NFL Draft. The big weekend was set to take place in Las Vegas and attract more than 700,000 visitors, but due to COVID-19, those plans have been canceled.

The draft will proceed as scheduled 23-25 April and the NFL is exploring innovative options for how the process will be conducted and will provide that information as it becomes available.

Even though the process is going to be quite different this year, what’s at stake for NFL teams remains the same. With a very talented draft class, teams high up in the draft are gifted with several great options of players to join their organization.

With nearly all professional and amateur sporting events shelved due to the pandemic, the betting handle for the NFL Draft should easily break records. Bettors will still be able to have a field day as they normally would on any other draft. Below are 10 picks to consider.

10. First overall pick
According to multiple rumors, it seems like Joe Burrow, quarterback of LSU, is a lock to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. That said, this may be one of the more risky bets in the draft. Burrow is listed as 1-to-28 at bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook to go first overall. The next highest is Chase Young, defensive end of Ohio State, at 14-to-1.

Because the odds are so heavy and since Burrow will most likely be the first pick, you would have to risk $2,800 to win $100 on Burrow, which is where the risk comes into play. The only reason I think that is a better play than choosing Young or another player is because that seems like almost throwing away money.

The only way I see Burrow not going first is if the Bengals trade the pick, but that is not likely either, since Burrow is an Ohio native and Cincinnati is in desperate need of a QB. So, as much as it is a risk because of the amount, I would still go with Burrow over any other player for the first overall pick.

Bet $2,800 on Burrow to be the No. 1 overall pick to win $100

9. First TE drafted
Cole Kmet of Notre Dame has made a case for being the best tight end in the draft. As a sophomore, Kmet only had 15 receptions for 162 yards and did not find his way into the end zone. However, he made strides in his junior season, finishing with 43 catches for over 500 yards and six touchdowns.

With the NFL constantly changing, and the position of tight end becoming more of a needed role in the passing game, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Kmet is the first TE taken and done so in the late first round.

Kmet’s odds are -139 to be the first TE taken at bwins Sportsbook & Racebook. He is the favorite followed by Dayton’s Adam Trautman. With Trautman not coming from a major football school, he could be seen as more of a risky pick.

Bet $139 on Kmet to be the first TE drafted to win $100

8. Second QB drafted
As mentioned above, it would be a major shock if Joe Burrow wasn’t the No. 1 overall pick, let alone the first QB to be drafted. However, the QB class is a highly-anticipated group of talented players.

Tua Tagovailoa of Alabama, Justin Herbert of Oregon and Jordan Love of Utah State are all expected to be taken in the first round of the draft with the possibility of even more QBs going in the opening round.

The question is: Who will follow Burrow as the next QB selected? If Tua didn’t get injured last season, then he would most likely be the only one in this conversation. Since he suffered a season ending injury and wasn’t able to partake in the combine, questions still loom large about Tua’s health and current abilities.

That being said, even though he missed the final three games of the season, the Alabama southpaw QB with a rocket arm threw for just under 3,000 yards and 33 touchdown passes. He demonstrated his capability to protect the football by only throwing three interceptions.

Tua is the heavy favorite on bwin at -500 to be the second QB drafted, with Herbert at +250 and Love at +1,400 rounding out the top three choices.

Bet $500 on Tagovailoa to be the second QB drafted to win $100

7. Isaiah Simmons draft position
Arguably the best linebacker in the draft, Isaiah Simmons should be a top 10 pick in the draft, but will he make it higher than people expect?

The Clemson Tiger finished with 104 total tackles, seven sacks and three interceptions. I agree that he is the best LB in this year’s draft, but bwin has set his draft position over/under at 6.5 and I am leaning toward the over.

Barring any unexpected trades, the top three picks in the draft seem pretty locked, in my eyes. Burrow will be taken by the Bengals, followed by Chase Young picked by the Redskins and Ohio State defensive back Jeff Okudah by the Lions. The New York Giants have the fourth pick and need some serious help on the offensive line. That being said, the Giants have made some surprising draft choices in the past so it could lead to Simmons, but if they are aiming to give their young QB Daniel Jones some time to throw, and their best player, RB Saquon Barkley, room to run the ball, they need to go OL.

The Miami Dolphins hold the fifth pick, and after signing a couple of former Patriot linebackers, there is no need to use a top five pick on another LB. The last shot at Simmons’ under is the Los Angeles Chargers, who after losing Philip Rivers to free agency, is in need of someone to run the offense. I wouldn’t be shocked if Tua is drafted by the Chargers in the sixth slot, leaving Simmons out of the top 6.

Bet $110 on over 6.5 for Simmons to win $100

6. First RB drafted
The Georgia Bulldogs have produced several impressive running backs in the recent years, including Sony Michel, Nick Chubb and Todd Gurley. The SEC football machine is going to give the NFL another great player in D’Andre Swift.

While Swift didn’t lead the league in rushing yards or TDs, he might have been one of the most difficult players to tackle. After watching several of his games, I was able to see how he managed to average at least six yards per carry throughout his entire career. Even if the defense penetrated the offensive line, Swift would turn something into nothing, whether it would be avoiding a five-yard loss and picking up two yards, or breaking outside for a first down and more.

FanDuel Sportsbook has Swift (-175) listed as the favorite for the first RB take in the 2020 draft. The next RB listed is Jonathan Taylor (+155) of Wisconsin. I think the success of Georgia RBs in the last few years gives Swift a boost in his stock and will be taken ahead of Taylor.

Bet $175 on Swift to be the first RB drafted to win $100

5. First three picks exact order
One of the more interesting bets in the draft is choosing the exact order of the first three picks.
Burrow, as redundant as this may sound, is the obvious choice for No. 1. After that it gets a little more unclear, but not too hazy.

At No. 2, the Redskins will most likely look toward defense and the best defensive player available in this year’s draft is Young.

The No. 3 pick in the draft, in my opinion, will be Okudah, the most impressive defensive back in this class and could be a perfect fit for the Detroit Lions, which I will get into more detail about in a moment.

This is the second-favorite order on FanDuel at +220, following the favorite of Burrow, Young and Tagovailoa at even money.

Bet $100 on Burrow, Young and Okudah to be the first three players drafted to win $220

4. Jeff Okudah draft position
The reason I slot Okudah at No. 3 is because of the Lions’ offseason. Yes, they added a few front seven defensive players to their roster, but they lost Darius Slay, the best CB on the roster, to the Eagles.

With Okudah most likely still on the board still when the Lions are on the clock, it seems like a great fit for Detroit to pick up the Buckeye.

All that being said, if Okudah doesn’t go to the Lions, it is unlikely that he will go No. 4 to the Giants because of their need to fill other positions.

Okudah’s over/under for his draft position is set at 4.5 on bwin sportsbook. So if you go with the under, which seems like it could very well be possible, you are looking at one hope for that bet to hit and that is the Detroit Lions.

Bet $100 on Okudah under 4.5 to win $125

3. Total QBs drafted in round one
Probably one of the more confident picks I have in today’s list is the number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round. FanDuel lists the over/under at 4.5. Burrow and Tagovailoa are going to be taken in the top 10 picks probably which leaves no more than two other quarterbacks can be taken in the first round for the under.

Jordan Love of Utah State is a solid choice for a first round draft pick, but after Love it gets pretty unlikely. The next QB listed on FanDuel is Jacob Eason of Washington, who has an over/under set at 47.5 for his draft position. Even if by some chance he goes under that mark, by more than 15 picks, it doesn’t seem like another QB will also go in the first round with him.

One team that is puzzling when it comes to predicting draft picks is the New England Patriots, who have a need for a quarterback with the departure of Tom Brady, whether it is this year or next year. If Eason was taken by the Pats, that would bring the QB total to four and the under would still hit.

Bet $450 on under 4.5 QBs drafted in the first round to win $100

2. Chase Young draft position
This is another interesting prop bet of the NFL Draft. Young is the best defensive player on the board and it comes down to one pick for him. FanDuel Sportsbook has his draft position over/under at 2.5. With Burrow the consensus No. 1, it becomes clear that Young will be taken second overall.

The Washington Redskins hold the second pick in the draft. After drafting Dwayne Haskins last year, I don’t believe the Redskins would go and draft another QB, especially one coming off of a season-ending injury and couldn’t participate in the combine.

Young is a pass-rusher who can change an entire defense and make other players around him better. It would be hard to argue why the Redskins would pass up on Young.

Bet $370 on Young under 2.5 to win $100

1. First WR drafted
The wide receiver position is probably the most competitive in this year’s draft. Jerry Jeudy of Alabama and CeeDee Lamb of Oklahoma are the top two choices for anyone looking to open up their offense.

Jeudy is the favorite at bwin at -118 followed by Lamb at +135. Some people believe the combine is a waste of time and other believe it can be the difference in draft picks. Jeudy ran a 4.45 at the combine in the 40-yard dash, which was just slightly faster than Lamb’s 4.50. That could be the difference in why Jeudy gets taken first if that happens.

It is also hard to look away from a WR in Jeudy who has recorded 2,623 yards and 24 touchdowns in the last two seasons. While neither of this talented athletes may go in the top 10, I see Jeudy getting taken off the board just prior to Lamb in the low teens.

Bet $118 on Jeudy as the first WR drafted to win $100
Top 10 NFL Draft prop bets is republished from Online.CasinoCity.com.
Dan Ippolito

As Casino City's associate editor, Dan produces and edits all of our weekly newsletters, and writes about the gaming industry for our websites and the GPWA Times Magazine. Dan graduated from Marist College in 2017 with a degree in Communications and a concentration in Sports. Email him at daniel@casinocity.com, or follow him at @casinocity_dan on Twitter.
Dan Ippolito
As Casino City's associate editor, Dan produces and edits all of our weekly newsletters, and writes about the gaming industry for our websites and the GPWA Times Magazine. Dan graduated from Marist College in 2017 with a degree in Communications and a concentration in Sports. Email him at daniel@casinocity.com, or follow him at @casinocity_dan on Twitter.