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Best of Dan Podheiser

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Dan's DFS picks for NFL Week 7

22 October 2015

Hey, my Lions stack worked! Well, sort of. I still didn't win any money last week.

My lineup was hit and miss. Matthew Stafford had one of the best games of his career, just as I predicted, throwing for 405 yards and four touchdowns – including one each to Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, who were both also on my team. And I hit it big at tight end, too, as Greg Olsen nabbed 131 yards receiving and a touchdown, good for 29.1 points on DraftKings.

But other than that, my team was a complete flop. Eddie Lacy somehow only rushed for three yards against the Chargers, while his backup, James Starks, galloped for 112 yards on 10 carries and scored two touchdowns, including one on a five-yard reception.

I was 40,000 spots away from a min-cash in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker, but only seven points away from that min-cash. That's how much of a difference every play can make in daily fantasy football.

We're back on the horse this week.

For a full explanation of the differences between DraftKings and FanDuel scoring, read this blog post by Daily Fantasy Sports 101.

Quarterback: Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (DK: $6,700; FD: $8,200)

Palmer had one of his worst games of the year last week in Pittsburgh, overthrowing the ball in several key spots in a disappointing 25-13 loss to the Steelers, but he still somehow managed to throw for a season-high 421 yards. Palmer has eclipsed 300 yards in four of his six games in 2015, and this week he faces what might be the worst secondary in the league in the Baltimore Ravens.

The Cardinals have one of the highest projected team scoring totals around the league this week, according to Vegas oddsmakers, so the stars are aligned for Palmer to bounce back with a monstrous game. And for this price, he's certainly one of the best-value plays at quarterback in Week 7.

Running Back (DK): Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams ($5,000)

Gurley and the Rams take on the Cleveland Browns in what should be one of the sloppiest, lowest-scoring games of the week. But that plays right into the hands of the rookie running back's fantasy prospects. Look for Gurley, who has rushed for 146 and 159 yards in his last two games, respectively, to come off the bye week with his second straight 30-carry effort.

Running Back (FD): Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts ($7,100)

Gore has been pretty underwhelming from a fantasy perspective in his first season with the Colts, as the 32-year-old tailback has yet to rush for 100 yards in a game. But Gore is still averaging 4.5 yards per carry, which ranks ninth among rushers with at least 60 carries this season.

This week, Gore gets a very favorable matchup at home against the putrid New Orleans Saints defense, which ranks 31st in the league against the run. This game should be a high-scoring blowout by the Colts, so look for Indianapolis to feed Gore the rock throughout the second half.

Wide Receiver (DK): Brandon Marshall, New York Jets ($7,800)

The New York Jets are 4-1 and are on a roll, but the consensus is that it will come to a halt this week in New England, where the Jets are 9-point underdogs. That's a huge spread, but it provides the benefit that the Jets will probably have to throw the ball a lot, especially in the second half, to try to come back.

Marshall has been fantastic in his first season in New York, as the 31-year-old has over 100 yards receiving in each of his last four games. He's been targeted at least nine times in each of his five games this season, including a whopping 15 times in a 24-17 loss to the Eagles in Week 3. In that game, the Jets trailed 24-3 and were playing from behind for most of the contest – hence the reason Marshall saw so many targets. I'm looking for a similar game flow this week against the Patriots, which should hopefully mean a similar number of targets for Marshall.

Wide Receiver (FD): John Brown, Arizona Cardinals ($6,700)

Downtown John Brown has turned into more than just a one-off deep threat for the Cardinals. In his second season in Arizona, Brown has emerged as one of Palmer's top weapons alongside Cardinals legend Larry Fitzgerald. Last week in Pittsburgh, Brown reeled in 10 catches for 196 yards on a whopping 14 targets.

Because I'm going with Palmer at quarterback, I have to choose at least one Cardinals wide receiver for a stack. And while I like Fitzgerald this week, Brown comes at a much more affordable price, and his upside is potentially much higher.

Tight End: Benjamin Watson, New Orleans Saints (DK: $3,300; FD: $5,300)

Drew Brees loves his tight ends. He trusts his tight ends. And that was never more evident than last week against, with Watson's 10-catch, 127-yard performance against the Atlanta Falcons, a game the Saints absolutely had to win to keep their playoff hopes alive.

This week, the Saints are in a tough spot on the road in Indianapolis in a game that should prove to be a shootout. Look for Watson to be targeted early and often again. I'm frankly shocked that his price is still so low this week after his monster game in Week 6.

Defense: St. Louis Rams (DK: $2,400; FD: $4,500)

The Rams play the Browns this week in a game with the lowest over/under on the board at 42 points, according to oddsmakers. As 6-point underdogs, that means the Browns have a projected team total of just 18 points, also the lowest on the board. This makes the Rams an easy contender for a fantasy pick, and at their low price, it's worth taking a gamble on St. Louis.
Dan's DFS picks for NFL Week 7 is republished from Online.CasinoCity.com.
Dan Podheiser

Dan Podheiser has covered the gambling industry since 2013, but he has been an avid poker player for more than a decade, starting when he was just 14 years old. When he turned 18, he played online poker regularly on U.S.-friendly sites until Black Friday in April 2011.

Since graduating from Emerson College with a degree in journalism in 2010, Dan has worked as the sports editor for a chain of newspapers in Northwest Connecticut and served a year as an Americorps*VISTA, writing and researching grant proposals for a Boston-based charity.

Originally from South Jersey, where he still visits occasionally to see his family (and play on the state's regulated online poker sites), Dan lives in Brighton, Mass. with his wife and dog.
Dan Podheiser
Dan Podheiser has covered the gambling industry since 2013, but he has been an avid poker player for more than a decade, starting when he was just 14 years old. When he turned 18, he played online poker regularly on U.S.-friendly sites until Black Friday in April 2011.

Since graduating from Emerson College with a degree in journalism in 2010, Dan has worked as the sports editor for a chain of newspapers in Northwest Connecticut and served a year as an Americorps*VISTA, writing and researching grant proposals for a Boston-based charity.

Originally from South Jersey, where he still visits occasionally to see his family (and play on the state's regulated online poker sites), Dan lives in Brighton, Mass. with his wife and dog.