CasinoCityTimes.com

Gurus
News
Newsletter
Author Home Author Archives Author Books Send to a Friend Search Articles Subscribe
Stay informed with the
NEW Casino City Times newsletter!
Newsletter Signup
Stay informed with the
NEW Casino City Times newsletter!
Related Links
Recent Articles
Best of Dan Podheiser

Gaming Guru

author's picture
 

Analyzing a winning NFL season

2 January 2014

Betting on sports is really, really hard. Beating the vig at a sportsbook over a large sample is nearly impossible.

Each week on the Casino City Gang podcast, the editorial staff makes picks against the spread for every single NFL game, betting a fictional $10 per game. (There are 256 games; we bet on the 249 that bet365 Sportsbook & Racebook had on its books at the time of our picks). And in 2013, I turned a modest profit.

Granted, 249 games is not exactly a huge sample size. But I can still be proud of my 135-106-8 record, $172.46 fictional profit and 6.93 percent return on investment.

I also decided to dig a little bit deeper and see if I could analyze why I had success this season. As it turns out, I went 57-37 in divisional games this year, which made up the majority of my profit. And half of my success in those games came from AFC South contests, in which I posted an 11-1-0 record. I must have had good reads on the Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans this season, because I went 34-15-3 in any game involving those teams.

Here are some more trends I uncovered:

Team(s) best handicapped: Indianapolis and Jacksonville (12-4 each)

Team worst handicapped: Dallas Cowboys (4-11)

Division best handicapped (removing duplicate games): AFC South (34-15-3)

Division(s) worst handicapped (removing duplicate games): NFC East (25-25-1) and AFC North (25-25-2)

Record in non-divisional, interconference games: 46-41-4

Record in non-conference games: 30-28-4
Analyzing a winning NFL season is republished from Online.CasinoCity.com.
Dan Podheiser

Dan Podheiser has covered the gambling industry since 2013, but he has been an avid poker player for more than a decade, starting when he was just 14 years old. When he turned 18, he played online poker regularly on U.S.-friendly sites until Black Friday in April 2011.

Since graduating from Emerson College with a degree in journalism in 2010, Dan has worked as the sports editor for a chain of newspapers in Northwest Connecticut and served a year as an Americorps*VISTA, writing and researching grant proposals for a Boston-based charity.

Originally from South Jersey, where he still visits occasionally to see his family (and play on the state's regulated online poker sites), Dan lives in Brighton, Mass. with his wife and dog.
Dan Podheiser
Dan Podheiser has covered the gambling industry since 2013, but he has been an avid poker player for more than a decade, starting when he was just 14 years old. When he turned 18, he played online poker regularly on U.S.-friendly sites until Black Friday in April 2011.

Since graduating from Emerson College with a degree in journalism in 2010, Dan has worked as the sports editor for a chain of newspapers in Northwest Connecticut and served a year as an Americorps*VISTA, writing and researching grant proposals for a Boston-based charity.

Originally from South Jersey, where he still visits occasionally to see his family (and play on the state's regulated online poker sites), Dan lives in Brighton, Mass. with his wife and dog.